At the beginning of the year, companies, organizations, administrations, families, individuals, everyone focuses on looking at the future of the year. Some have ongoing five-year business plans and need to try to fulfill the next steps. Others have been recently thinking about what the goals for 2024 will be and are beginning to pave the way to achieve them. There are also those who simply unfreeze budgets from the end of the year because in the new fiscal year they have the freedom to obtain more resources or go into debt.
The near future begins again, and without realizing it, we have already passed January. Since the university follows the academic calendar, the beginning of the year is exam time and barely the moment to start thinking about how to plan the next academic year.
What is the future? We can answer in many ways. We start with the idea that the future is a source of uncertainties because we don't know how it will be. Some uncertainties are very little controllable on an individual level and affect us directly or indirectly. So, there's not much we can do beyond modifying small individual behaviors. Currently, there are many uncertainties in geopolitics and in conflicts between countries in different parts of the world over territorial and ideological issues.
We are also affected by everything related to climate change, which will soon trigger certain levels of domestic restrictions on water use and consumption, unless it starts raining heavily very soon. Predictions and plans are made to reduce the consequences of uncertainties, such as fear, excessive protection, overactivity, or paralysis caused by doubts.
Plans have three possible approaches depending on each one's circumstances: growth, maintenance, or retreat. Companies focus on growth. But increasingly, more voices are questioning growth. The myth of growing to be better breaks. What does it mean to be better? Is growing an "excuse" to achieve economies of scale and favor the disappearance of competition that, even if it specializes, cannot compete on costs?
It is no surprise that the European Commission is investigating Amazon for its purchase of iRobot for 1.7 billion dollars (maker of Roomba vacuums). It seems that Amazon intends to combine the behavior of the robot vacuum with information collected by Alexa, which means a competitive advantage and goes against antitrust practices.
Growth based on efficiency and digitization seems infinite. Where is the limit? Sustainability could be a reason to slow down growth when it clearly impacts climate change. However, sustainability is not the essential reason for those who promote degrowth. Degrowth is the concept that promotes the transition to a more equitable and sustainable economic model, breaking the paradigm of the future based on economic growth, proposing alternatives to balance well-being, happiness, and the surrounding environment. The approaches of Conscious Capitalism by John Mackey and Raj Sisodia or the economy of the common good by Christian Felber don't help to whitewash the growth approach when climate change is accelerating, and when the perception of the future gives a very high degree of uncertainty. John, from the economy of the common good, sold Whole Foods, his organic supermarket company, to Amazon in 2017 for 13.7 billion dollars. Without damaging much the essence of the fresh produce retail company, Amazon has been able to learn from physical sales and incorporate them into its business activities and has continued growing.
62% of consumers say they buy store brands because of inflation. In current consumer behavior, uncertainties weigh more, prioritizing price, except when it comes to impulse buying. Maybe that's why Carrefour announces in France that it will stop selling Pepsi products because they won't lower prices.
After the lockdown and following inflation, prices and interest rates tend to slow down, while employment rises. That’s why there are voices saying that 2024 will be good, with the permission of geopolitics and climate change. We’ll be happy to see that.
Gabriel Izard Granados
